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Tidying up stray Idaho voter data

October 3rd, 2016

Our readers may want to commiserate about the status of general voter apathy. On the bright side, Idaho is probably among the enviable states.  We actually do have voters turn out to the polls.  That said, the trend is disturbing. The percent of eligible Idaho voters who vote in the presidential elections has been in decline for nearly […]

Part 3: Forecast Total Vote for CP National

Part 3:  Forecast Total Vote for CP National September 15th, 2016

Write-in vote data for CP national ballot returns are spotty at best. Actually, we would use the term “skimpy” except that we are, ahem, a family hour sort of website.  Of the little write-in data that is available, it is inconsistent. That said, two states—namely Indiana and Texas (both are again write-in states for the 2016 CP national ballot)—have four […]

Part 2: Forecast Total Vote for CP National

Part 2:  Forecast Total Vote for CP National September 14th, 2016

As mentioned in Part 1, our basic vote projection model was extremely accurate in 2008. It had merit, in other words.  However, due to a collapse in total state CP ballot lines in 2012 (an 11 state loss) , the 2012 projection missed by a considerable margin.  Final vote tally came back at about half […]

Part 1: Forecast Total Vote for CP National

Part 1:  Forecast Total Vote for CP National September 13th, 2016

General elections are much like the cycle of seasons. Spring follows Winter.  Summer follows Spring, and Autumn…is the season of the general election. Normal events (e.g. like seasonal weather) typically do not fall beyond the bounds of a Gaussian function. This election cycle we suspect will be no different.  This, despite a cacophony of hoarse excited […]

A statistical read on third parties

February 25th, 2015

Informally, the CP-Idaho Chairman set a goal of regular upgrades to knowledge and skills within our citizen led party.  We must improve platform statements and public policy proposals, and we must make use of statistical analysis which can improve our party’s candidate campaigns. This led to an interesting manual: “Measurement and Analysis of Political Systems” written in […]