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July 27th, 2017

We have observed a commonality among politicians of every stripe—namely, they are well endowed with a copious quantity of blowhard. That is not affected, unfortunately, by whether the politician is left wing, right wing, mainstream or fringe.  They all are predisposed.

Much like the chameleon, politicians who blowhard serve two purposes—first is to hide and wait in ambush for the unwary; second is to hide in camouflage to avoid those who may be hunting them. Either way, it’s difficult to sort through the political genetics; to blowhard is a dazzle camouflage of sorts.

We have little doubt that the present gentleman in office (which is to say Mr. Trump) will pander after a full-throated hallelujah chorus of worshipful hosannas. He is the purported savior of the economy, at least to the zealots who follow him.

Their math, however, is fuzzy.  It masks actuality.  Not to mix metaphors, but we have the temerity to suggest that the gentleman is obviously a right veritable Wizard of Oz…at least until Toto pulls back the curtain.  After that, not so much.

The U.S. Census reported a seasonally adjusted “decline” in the foreign trade imbalance of goods for the month of June 2017.  It is being heralded…or trumpeted…we’re making the American economy great again to be sure. America’s trade position is on the mend, it is claimed.

Appearances can be deceiving.


Indeed, adjusted monthly trade balance numbers in second quarter 2017 (blue line in chart above) “look like” the trade deficit is trending down, however incrementally. In billions of dollars, the adjusted goods numbers are:  April, (-67.107), May (-66.325) and June (-63.864).

Non-adjusted numbers, by definition, are more volatile—we prefer them because they are less prone to pencil “marks”. Respectively, non-adjusted monthly trade balances in goods are:  April, (-62.582), May (-72.576) and June (-65.163).


Comparing year-to-year (2017 versus 2016 and 2015), adjusted quarterly goods trade numbers for 2017 (green line in chart above) also “look like” they are improving. This chart, or a derivative of it, will likely be a preferred blowing point about claims of economic salvation as Congress and the Administration head for a September 30th fiscal year budget.

For our part, Scriptures are plain enough. Test the spirit of each and every erstwhile angel robed with light.  There’s statistics, and there’s damned statistics so to speak.  Things are not always as they are alleged to be.  Politics are too often, and sadly, matters of perception.

Commerce Department numbers have long been subject to fuzzy math and camouflage, at least as far back as the notorious “adjustments” of data during the Clinton regime; or for that matter “voodoo economics” during the age of Reagan. It’s tough to set a straight course for all the gale force winds.


But we set our tack even so. We use the adjusted monthly trade numbers (in goods) and compare it year to year over the previous three years.  When you do that, as the chart shows, the insinuations about incremental improvements to the trade imbalance are anything but certain.

Regardless, all of these numbers are deeply red, far below the surface from sea to shining sea. So deep are these trade deficits, the denizens who swim by at those levels take on all sorts of phantasmagoric luminescent appendages and bear razor edged grinning teeth.  Sea creatures (or politicians), they be called.

CP-Idaho remains adamant regarding the need to solve the American foreign trade deficit.  And, we fully intend to primary again in 2020.  Any national Constitution Party candidate who seeks CP-Idaho’s printed ballot for the office of President will primary in this state.  No exceptions.

Candidates must stand before the people of Idaho in open debate before they warrant consideration by the people of Idaho. The choice of a statewide candidate rests entirely, as it ought, with registered CP-Idaho voters…not with political party blowhards however low they might ply the deep dark.

We therefore recommend to all the Davey Joneses out there who desire the Idaho printed line, repair the ballast tanks before any more blowing.  At this depth, we can no longer pretend and ignore.  We require detailed diagrams, applied logic and work toward solutions…in other words, harness the physics.   Otherwise, all you’re doing is making more bubbles.  As it is now, we will all have had more than enough “oceans white with foam” long ere we get to 2020.

2 Responses To This Post

  1. Floyd Whitley Says:

    Consumer Goods–are the heftiest chunk of the total monthly trade imbalance in goods by segment.

    The net imbalance (in billions of dollars) during the 2nd quarter 2017 for Consumer Goods totals: April (-30.8); May (-34.4) and June (-29.5). An Al Capone revelation, perhaps, but this is where the trade imbalance is.

    So, even if the national party would confine itself to generating specific and serious proposals to fix the trade imbalance in just this one segment–Consumer Goods–doing that much disciplined work would go a long way toward nurturing credibility in the eyes of the public voter.

    But unfortunately…

  2. Floyd Whitley Says:

    Regarding statistics versus damned statistics, the politicians emphasize that China “increased its imports” of U.S. made goods year-to-year in May…by 16.8%. Really? Do tell.

    The implication, of course, is that the current so-called “tough negotiator” in the White House has a “muscular policy” and that alone is creating great benefit to the overall economy–“Making America Great Again” they say.

    The problem (truth) is one of scale and one of omission.

    China’s exports to the U.S. are massively out-sized; in fact, they define predatory trade. The 8.2% increase ($14.06 billion) in their dumping more exports into the American economy easily outstrips that highly touted 16.8% improvement ($7.13 billion) in Chinese purchases of imports from the U.S.

    The net result is roughly a 5.3% increase ($6.99 billion) in the monthly trade imbalance, as the table shows. That is not an improvement, if, that is, one were honest about it.

    China May-16 May-17 Change
    Export to US 173,562 187,618 8.20%
    Import from US 42,395 49,529 16.80%
    Net Balance -131,167 -138,089 5.28%

    China only imports from the U.S. about 25% of the value of its exports to the U.S. This “institutionalizes” a deep imbalance. This level of long term systemic imbalance simply cannot be sustained…and worse still, China is not the only trading partner doing this.

    What we should be about, as a political party, is crafting sensible trade legislation to ensure fair trading practices–with “sensible” taking the meaning that we must be cognizant of potential collateral damage and avoid it by improved targeting and better precision. In any case, economic trade policy proposals should begin to target the Consumer Goods component…as explained over on the facebook page.

    The national party continues, unfortunately, to ignore this kind of substance, and to shirk the required level of intelligent work necessary to be meaningful (and therefore an option) to the American people. However, if it is anything, the national party is all about semblance. It’s sound and fury that signifies little more than a public blaring from their minaret’s radical loudspeakers…as if mouthing narrow ideology is going to fix anything; or indeed, as if that minaret nasally whining from on high defines righteousness in the first place.

    Get off the ritual, and get on the work. The harvest is great.